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16:56
Jul 19
Jul 19
AIRLINES 1ST
▾
MED
Airlines benefit from strong premium demand.
Premium cabin demand remains strong, and fuel costs may have peaked, allowing airlines to raise ticket prices further, which is good for airline profitability.
AIRLINES LONG
MED
16:38
Jul 19
Jul 19
CME Single Stock Futures
▾
MED
Prefer single stock futures over index futures.
The explosion of zero-day options selling by retail has created a strong counter-trend force in equity indices, which suppresses index volatility and increases idiosyncratic risk. As a result, single stock futures (newly launching on CME) are now more attractive for trend following than index futures because they offer higher available risk and diversification.
CME Single Stock Futures LONG
MED
14:16
Jul 19
Jul 19
XLE 1ST
▾
MED
US oil and gas benefits from Iran pressure.
Sustained military and economic pressure on Iran raises the risk premium for oil shipments through the Persian Gulf, causing global buyers to seek safer supply sources, which directly benefits the United States as a secure oil and gas exporter.
XLE LONG
MED
14:00
Jul 19
Jul 19
US AI sector
European AI sector
NFLX 1ST
DIS
US Hyperscaler stocks
▾
HIGH
US AI dominance over Europe persists.
US AI companies dominate globally with 43 of the 50 largest AI firms, while Europe has only ASML and faces flat economies, high UK interest costs, and regulatory fragmentation. Europe is not in a position to catch up, making US AI the clear long and European AI a structural underperformer.
US AI sector LONG
European AI sector SHORT
Netflix and Disney win media consolidation.
Scale matters in media as companies become technology firms. Netflix and Disney lead with high streaming margins (30% and 12%) and progress in combining content with technology, positioning them as winners in the consolidation trend.
NFLX LONG
DIS LONG
Hyperscaler capex raises return pressure risk.
Hyperscalers are spending $700 billion on AI capex, and eventually investors will demand a return. This creates a risk of dislocation; a turn in the hyperscalers would change the conversation sharply, making the group worth monitoring for signs of stress.
US Hyperscaler stocks WATCH
HIGH
13:26
Jul 19
Jul 19
SMH 1ST
INTC 1ST
▾
MED
Semiconductors priced for perfection, upside limited.
The semiconductor sector is priced to perfection after rallying over 100% in the last twelve months; even blowout earnings like Taiwan Semi's were followed by stock declines, raising doubt that good prints can drive further upside, suggesting a high bar and vulnerability to selling.
SMH AVOID
Intel's high bar risks profit taking.
Intel stock is up over 150% year-to-date, pricing in high expectations for capturing AI chip spending; if earnings fail to exceed that high bar, profit-taking could occur.
INTC AVOID
MED
13:00
Jul 19
Jul 19
BTC
AIQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Institutions are the next big Bitcoin buyer.
Institutional capital is the next marginal buyer of Bitcoin, the 'end boss of investing', with trillions of dollars set to flow in. This will drive a great bull market starting end of this year and accelerating for years.
BTC LONG
AI stocks will keep going up.
AI stocks have already ripped and will keep ripping, according to the host's bullish outlook on the sector.
AIQ LONG
HIGH
12:42
Jul 19
Jul 19
JETS 1ST
▾
MED
Airline pricing power boosts bottom line.
Airlines have pricing power because airfares are still 10-15% below inflation-adjusted levels, demand remains strong especially in premium cabins, and the Delta CEO indicated ticket prices can rise further without destroying demand, which is good for airline bottom lines.
JETS LONG
MED
08:36
Jul 19
Jul 19
SAP 1ST
ORCL 1ST
CRM 1ST
German equity
French equity
▾
HIGH
Enterprise software captures AI value through customers.
AI will be embedded into existing enterprise software, making the tools themselves more efficient and allowing companies to reduce headcount. The software vendors own the customer relationship, making switching costly; they will capture the AI value by adding AI features to their existing platforms (e.g., SAP financial software, Salesforce CRM, Oracle). This provides a high-margin, sticky revenue stream, and the sell-off in software may be overdone. Caterpillar’s finance department could shrink from 80 to 60 people using AI-augmented software, illustrating the productivity gain.
SAP LONG
ORCL LONG
CRM LONG
AI beneficiaries will see massive margin expansion.
The equity rally will shift from AI providers to AI beneficiaries — thousands of companies globally that can improve profit margins by 25–75 bps per year for 5–7 years using AI tools to cut costs. This includes US small/mid caps, European mid caps, and selected emerging markets (Germany, France, Singapore, Brazil). These boring companies can become multi-baggers on small revenue growth plus margin expansion, unlike the crowded Mag 7 trade.
German equity LONG
French equity LONG
Singapore equity LONG
European midcap LONG
Brazilian equity LONG
US small/midcap LONG
OJ breakdown with heavy long positioning.
Orange juice futures are making fresh lows with a chart that looks deathly, while speculative longs remain elevated. The bearish technical breakdown combined with still-heavy long positioning creates a set-up for further downside as longs are forced out. A short trade looks interesting.
Orange Juice SHORT
Mag 7 face free cash flow valuation risk.
The Mag 7 hyperscalers are facing a major free cash flow problem as their capex surges to build AI infrastructure. Valuations are stretched, and the transition from AI providers to AI beneficiaries means these stocks could underperform. Even if adoption remains high, the market may rotate away, and one prominent firm (e.g., Oracle) could be the first to stress the system. This warrants caution on the group.
MAGS AVOID
Gold poised for a whoosh lower.
Gold has rolled over from an extreme bullish sentiment and positioning peak. The chart shows distributive price action with repeated supply into rallies, and speculative longs are still elevated despite the correction. A final whoosh down is likely, potentially toward the 50% retracement of the recent bull run (~$3600). Real yields rising and dollar strength add macro headwinds for gold in the short term.
GLD AVOID
S&P 500 vulnerable to sudden sell-off.
The S&P 500 is vulnerable to a sharp correction. Earnings expectations are extremely elevated, and the market has priced in perfect outcomes. Implied correlations are at multi-year lows, and speculative activity is rampant (double/triple leveraged ETFs). If even a single major tech name misses or cuts spending, a broad sell-off could occur. Gold weakness may be the canary that precedes the equity downdraft.
SPY AVOID
Oil set to rally as speculators rebuild.
Large speculators have been washed out of crude oil longs, positioning is back to pre-Strait of Hormuz crisis levels, and the SPR emptying represents a future re-stocking demand. Crack spreads are blowing out, and the market underestimates the upside risk. A move back to $90–100/barrel is a base case, and the tail risk is even higher given the lack of a long cushion.
WTI LONG
Wheat and ag commodities breaking higher.
Wheat is breaking out to 52-week highs after a multi-year decline. Weather disruptions, fertilizer shortages tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions, and very low real prices on an inflation-adjusted basis support a sustained rally. The DBA agriculture ETF and MOO agribusiness ETF are also turning up, signalling a broader agricultural commodity upswing.
WEAT LONG
DBA LONG
MOO LONG
Coffee in early-stage bull run.
Coffee futures have decisively exited their bear market. Large speculative positioning remains near multi-year lows after a prolonged washout, yet price has broken out on Brazilian crop concerns and El Niño. The lack of speculative length suggests significant room for a rebuild, with dips likely being bought as the long-term bull phase resumes.
KC LONG
Cocoa positioning extreme, bull run ahead.
Cocoa positioning has collapsed to net short levels among large specs, the lowest in five years, after a brutal multi-year bear market. Price is now turning higher and dips are being bought, but speculative longs have not yet rebuilt. This sets up a potential squeeze and a new bull trend as fundamentals tighten.
COCOA LONG
Semis and KOSPI flashing major warnings.
Semiconductors (SMH) are testing the critical 50-day moving average and the 570 support level that has defined the uptrend. A breakdown below this level would signal the start of a semiconductor sell cycle. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (South Korean index) has already fallen 30% from highs and is in full distribution mode, acting as a leading warning for AI-related equities.
SMH WATCH
EWY WATCH
HIGH
08:30
Jul 19
Jul 19
GH 1ST
NTRA 1ST
005930.KS
000660.KS
Tiger Shipbuilding Top 10 ETF
▾
HIGH
Buy Guardant Health and Natera on biotech rotation.
Retail investors are rotating out of crowded tech positions into biotech and healthcare. Guardant Health (liquid biopsy, early cancer detection) and Natera (genetic testing, recurrence monitoring) are leading liquid-biopsy companies that rank high among retail purchases. This rotation into defensive biotech leaders gives them added demand and supports a positive outlook.
GH LONG
NTRA LONG
Buy Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix memory stocks.
TSMC's strong AI-accelerator demand outlook and ASML's raised 2026 guidance show that AI-driven memory and equipment demand is real, not oversupply. This eases fears of a memory peak and confirms that Korean memory makers' capex is justified. Additionally, equipment supply tightness through 2027-28 gives early-moving Korean memory companies a competitive edge. The recent selloff in memory stocks is overdone, and a technical rebound is likely.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Rotate into shipbuilding ETF away from memory.
Memory semiconductor stocks are likely to stay extremely volatile. Investors should reduce exposure to them and rotate into unrelated defensive sectors. Shipbuilding stands out: HD Hyundai Heavy and peers have strong order backlogs, solid earnings, and have already corrected 30%+ from highs, yet rebounded even on Friday’s broad selloff. A shipbuilding ETF (Tiger Shipbuilding Top 10) gives concentrated exposure to this alternative theme.
Tiger Shipbuilding Top 10 ETF LONG
Favor short-term Korean bonds over duration.
The Bank of Korea’s rate-hike cycle is continuing, with further hikes expected in 2026-2027. In a rising-rate environment, assets with low duration exposure—short-term bonds, cash equivalents, and ultra-short maturity bonds—are more favorable than longer-duration fixed income.
Korea Short-term Bonds LONG
HIGH
08:00
Jul 19
Jul 19
SOXX
▾
HIGH
Buy Philly Semi dip, rebound pattern.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen over 15% from its high due to sector rotation, leveraged fund deleveraging, and macro pressures. However, this year's pattern shows 15% drops consistently lead to rebounds. Trump is expected to act to prevent further declines in rates, oil, and stocks, providing a catalyst. Earnings from ASML and TSMC this week are likely to restore momentum. Entering the dip now carries limited risk.
SOXX LONG
HIGH
07:00
Jul 19
Jul 19
042660.KS
329180.KS
064350.KS 1ST
079550.KS 1ST
047810.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Improved cooperation boosts submarine export wins
Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries have matured from fierce rivals into a capable one-team after the Poland submarine loss, demonstrated in the narrowly-missed Canada bid. This cooperation experience, together with strong submarine performance and delivery reliability, will make future negotiations smoother and increase their chances in upcoming tenders such as Saudi Arabia, Southeast Asia, and Greece.
042660.KS LONG
329180.KS LONG
K2 European exports via Poland production
Poland's local production of over 800 K2 tanks creates a 'Made in Europe' label, bypassing EU protectionist sentiment and opening additional export opportunities to Romania and other Eastern European countries. This expands the total addressable market for the K2 platform beyond the initial Poland contract.
064350.KS LONG
Cheongung II missile exports poised to soar
Cheongung II (KM-SAM) missile demand is exploding due to current conflicts, with proven near-perfect performance (96% official hit rate, 4% intentional self-destructs for safety). Foreign media understate Korea's production capacity, but domestic supply chain concentration in Changwon/Gumi and already-started factory expansion allow rapid scaling to multiple times current output on firm orders. Many export deals are undisclosed but will eventually surface, and existing contracts with UAE, Saudi Arabia are progressing normally.
079550.KS LONG
KF21 fighter exports to reach 200+ units
KAI's KF21 fighter is receiving serious export inquiries, with the KAI CEO publicly expecting over 200 units. The speaker believes 200 exports are achievable within 10 years, and given the decades-long production and support cycles, total long-term exports could double or triple, making it a pivotal export item.
047810.KS LONG
HIGH
06:00
Jul 19
Jul 19
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
13h
005930.KS
000660.KS
8035.T
ASML
LRCX
▾
HIGH
Memory shortage persists; AI essential, non-cyclical.
Memory semiconductor supply remains in a structural shortage. Wafer production capacity from the top three DRAM/NAND makers (Samsung, SK hynix, Micron) is fully utilised and cannot increase until late 2027 when new lines start producing wafers. AI demand, especially HBM, has made high-performance memory a non-negotiable component inside GPUs, turning memory from a cyclical commodity into an AI essential. Long-term supply agreements (LTA) lock in volumes, and pricing continues to rise even if spot spikes are moderated. The speaker expects at least three years of stability with earnings growing, and personally adds to positions on dips.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Monopolistic equipment leaders keep rising steadily.
The top five global semiconductor equipment companies—ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and KLA—are all near-monopolies in their respective process steps. Their equipment has extremely long lead times (over a year) and they capture most of the capex in any fab construction. Because their order books are full and entry barriers are astronomical, simply holding them will result in a steady uptrend. The speaker prefers these global leaders over Korean domestic equipment names for simplicity and peace of mind.
8035.T LONG
ASML LONG
LRCX LONG
KLAC LONG
AMAT LONG
KoMiCo to surge on wafer ramp recurring revenue.
Within Korean semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment (소부장), the speaker sees better opportunities in materials and parts companies that have recurring revenue and benefit once wafer lines begin operating. He specifically names KoMiCo (183300.KQ) as one of the companies that will surge when wafer production ramps, and notes that cleaning and parts companies have stronger recurring characteristics than equipment makers, making them attractive during the upcoming capacity expansion.
183300.KQ LONG
HIGH
02:22
Jul 19
Jul 19
WTI
▾
MED
Oil market vulnerable after buffer depletion
The global oil system absorbed the largest supply disruption in history via redundant infrastructure, strategic reserves, and China curbing demand, but those buffers have been whittled down. The oil market is now more vulnerable, and complacency about its resilience risks a sharp price spike if another prolonged disruption occurs.
WTI WATCH
MED
02:00
Jul 19
Jul 19
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
17h
005930.KS 1ST
000660.KS 1ST
CASH 1ST
TLT 1ST
Commodities (broad, energy/raw materials)
▾
HIGH
Capex fears overblown, semis will rebound.
Korean semiconductor stocks (Samsung Electronics, SK hynix) corrected sharply on fears that hyper-scaler capex will stop, but the capex cycle will continue because of large RPO backlogs and the US government's need for AI dominance. The sell-off is amplified by leverage unwinding, valuations are now cheaper, and as worries ease the stocks are likely to rebound and resume their uptrend.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Avoid leverage, hold cash for dips.
Volatility will increase throughout this cycle. Using leverage risks total account destruction. A better strategy is to maintain a certain level of cash to buy dips and sell rips, avoiding leverage entirely.
CASH LONG
Long bonds unattractive amid sticky inflation.
Persistent inflation and continued massive capex spending will keep bond yields elevated or rising. Long-duration bonds are particularly risky in this environment, and the asset class is unattractive relative to equities.
TLT AVOID
Commodities gain as inflation persists.
In a sustained inflationary environment, money will keep flowing into real assets like energy and raw materials. Commodities offer a better portfolio diversifier than bonds.
Commodities (broad, energy/raw materials) LONG
Power equipment still AI capex beneficiary.
The electric power equipment sector sold off more than 30% from April but its positive narrative is completely intact. It will be a key protagonist in the AI data center capex cycle, making the current pullback an opportunity.
267260.KS LONG
HIGH
01:00
Jul 19
Jul 19
BTC 1ST
UUP 1ST
HYPE 1ST
STRC 1ST
ETH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin up as dollar index falls.
Bitcoin is poised for significant upside in the second half because the US Dollar Index is expected to decline sharply from 101 to 90, mirroring patterns from prior Bitcoin bull markets. The dollar has priced in rate hikes without actual hikes, long positioning is overcrowded (extreme bullish positioning historically precedes dollar drops), and with inflation easing, the Fed is likely to cut rates, which would further weaken the dollar. Bitcoin has exhibited a strong inverse correlation with the dollar, falling when dollar rose over the past year while other assets did not, so a falling dollar should propel Bitcoin higher.
BTC LONG
Dollar index to fall sharply.
The US Dollar Index is set to decline significantly due to an overvalued level after pricing in rate hikes that did not fully materialize, overcrowded long positioning among traders, and a likely shift to Fed rate cuts as inflation cools. The dollar's extreme long positioning has historically preceded reversals, and the technical and macro setup points to a meaningful fall.
UUP SHORT
Rotate into ETF-candidate altcoins now.
Altcoins with approved or likely spot ETF approvals (Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, Hyperliquid, SUI) will outperform as the Clarity Act clarifies regulatory status and enables more spot ETFs. Even if the Clarity Act fails, the trend toward ETFs for these coins will concentrate inflows. Investors should rotate from low-cap junk coins into these ETF-candidate coins for safety and upside.
HYPE LONG
ETH LONG
XRP LONG
SUI LONG
SOL LONG
STRC will rebound to $100.
STRC (Strategy's Series A perpetual preferred stock) will recover to $100 as the company uses proceeds from issuing new STRC shares to buy Bitcoin and the high dividend yield (11-12%) attracts buyers, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. The recent selloff to $75 is an opportunity because the dividend mechanism and market trust in Strategy's Bitcoin strategy will drive price back to par.
STRC LONG
HIGH
23:33
Jul 18
Jul 18
069500.KS 1ST
EWY
KOSDAQ Index
035720.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Buy KODEX 200 ETF for long-term gains
For novice investors, large-cap stocks are the safest bet, and the KODEX 200 ETF captures the KOSPI 200 heavyweights; most gains come on just a few days of big rallies, so long-term holding of this ETF is recommended instead of chasing hot stocks or trying to pick individual names.
069500.KS LONG
Bank holding companies are new market leaders
Korean bank holding companies are the new market leaders because they held up and even rose during the recent crash and circuit-breaker sell-off, showing resilience; global institutional fund managers are rotating into them, and they exhibit strong relative strength.
EWY LONG
Avoid KOSDAQ ETF
KOSDAQ has been underperforming relative to KOSPI, most KOSDAQ ETFs have reversed into downtrends and are showing heavy pullbacks; investors should avoid KOSDAQ and concentrate on the main board large caps.
KOSDAQ Index AVOID
Buy Kakao on deep pullback
Kakao is now very cheap at around 344,000 KRW after a deep crash, much lower than before, and it is a quality large-cap company with a loyal user base; the pullback provides a buying opportunity to accumulate.
035720.KS LONG
HIGH
23:00
Jul 18
Jul 18
21:00
Jul 18
Jul 18
Market Makers
22h
O MAIOR MERCADO DO MUNDO ESTÁ CHEGANDO À CRIPTO (E QUASE NINGUÉM PERCEBEU) | Crypto Never Sleeps #59
PENDLE 1ST
BTC 1ST
▾
HIGH
Pendle token is undervalued, poised for growth.
Pendle's tokenomics are now more efficient and investor-friendly after changing from illiquid vesting up to 4 years to liquid staking with 80% fee distribution; the token price is now more fairly aligned with TVL. The protocol dominates 90-95% of the yield trading market, and as regulation (Clarity Act, SEC/CFTC openness) enables traditional fixed income and tokenized assets to access DeFi, Pendle will gain massive traction and could become the general yield optimization layer, driving token demand.
PENDLE LONG
Accumulate crypto now for next bull market.
Crypto is maturing from adolescence to adulthood, with clearer regulation ahead bringing institutional capital. The bear market is the time to accumulate, and the next bull market could be the largest ever. Investors should accumulate over the next six months regardless of further price declines.
BTC LONG
HIGH
18:32
Jul 18
Jul 18
XLK 1ST
GLD
SILVER
COPPER
GDX
▾
HIGH
Tech overbought, avoid.
The technology sector is overbought and highly concentrated, offering poor risk/reward. He would shy away from any exposure and not rotate back into tech.
XLK AVOID
Gold secular bull, buy dip.
Gold is in a secular bull market, the recent sell-off is an accumulation opportunity. Inflation-adjusted gold is not at all-time highs, the system cannot afford higher rates, and central banks are structurally accumulating.
GLD LONG
Silver oversold, buy.
Silver prices are extremely attractive at these levels, deeply oversold historically, and should be bought as part of the precious metals bull market.
SILVER LONG
Copper explosive upside ahead.
Copper is transitioning from a cyclical commodity to a safe haven driven by structural demand (data centers, onshoring) and severe supply constraints. Breaking all-time highs historically leads to explosive upside, and copper is showing unusual resilience.
COPPER LONG
Gold miners deeply discounted.
Gold mining stocks, as represented by GDX, are down 45-50%, an unprecedented discount relative to the gold price. In a secular bull market for metals, this presents a very significant opportunity.
GDX LONG
Agnico Eagle undervalued, accumulate.
Agnico Eagle is down 44% despite owning generational mines with decades of cash flow, an exceptional management team, and profitability at gold prices well below current levels. He is accumulating aggressively, making it one of his largest gold positions.
AEM LONG
Chile ETF proxy for copper.
Latin America will attract institutional capital in a hard assets era, with Chile as a copper proxy. The ECH ETF follows copper prices indirectly and offers exposure to a country that is the 'Saudi Arabia of copper'.
ECH LONG
Energy stocks attractive now.
Energy stocks, particularly oil and gas, are becoming more attractive at current price levels. The risk/reward is favorable, especially when paired with existing precious metals and mining exposure. Natural gas service businesses also look interesting.
XLE LONG
HIGH
17:23
Jul 18
Jul 18
NVDA FLIP
TSM
000660.KS FLIP
WTI
LLY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Chinese AI breakthroughs threaten US AI capex.
Despite near-term concerns around Chinese competition, major AI hardware players like TSMC, SK Hynix, and NVIDIA are playing the long game, with executives reaffirming that AI chip and hardware demand remains exceptionally strong and is expected to persist through 2030. Additionally, the declassification of the UAE as an export destination opens a new market for American AI technology, supporting sustained growth.
NVDA AVOID
TSM LONG
000660.KS AVOID
Oil market far more vulnerable now.
While the global oil system proved more resilient than expected during the initial Strait of Hormuz disruption, the buffers that helped absorb the shock (redundant infrastructure, strategic reserves, and Chinese demand management) have been significantly eroded. As a result, the market is now much more vulnerable, and a similarly prolonged disruption would likely cause a more severe oil price spike than the one seen earlier this year.
WTI WATCH
US pharma reshoring benefits Lilly and Novartis.
Efforts to restore critical pharmaceutical production in America are a bright spot, with major companies like Eli Lilly and Novartis already committing to reshoring and pouring concrete on new facilities in the U.S., supported by policy pushes and commitments from 17 pharma firms.
LLY LONG
NVS LONG
HIGH
15:07
Jul 18
Jul 18
Joseph Wang
1d
WTI FLIP
SPY
EWY
SOXX FLIP
▾
HIGH
War and low SPR push oil up.
The renewed US-Iran conflict, with a potential ground invasion, is pushing spot oil prices higher. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is near critically low levels, with refinery problems in Eastern Europe, creating risks of shortages in refined products like diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline, adding upward pressure on oil.
WTI LONG
US equities losing momentum, turning bearish.
Major US equity indexes are clearly losing momentum, breaking moving averages. The market faces two punches: the re-emergence of Middle East war and a new Chinese open-weight AI model that threatens the AI trade. With options support fading, the market looks heavy and poised for further declines.
SPY SHORT
KOSPI overleveraged, topping pattern, dangerous.
South Korea's KOSPI index went parabolic and has since suffered a huge tumble. Massive leverage built up via options and levered ETFs; over a million Korean trading accounts reportedly received margin calls on Friday. Even strongly bullish AI news from SK Hynix, ASML, and TSMC failed to lift these stocks, signaling a dangerous momentum break and potential for further unwind.
EWY AVOID
Open-weight AI models threaten chip demand.
A new Chinese open-weight AI model from Moonshot (Kimmy) is near the frontier of closed models like Claude and ChatGPT. Open-weight models reduce the moat of closed AI companies and may lower their profitability and future compute spending, ultimately reducing demand for US chips. This also introduces more competition in the chip sector, bearish for US semiconductor stocks.
SOXX SHORT
HIGH
15:00
Jul 18
Jul 18
CoinDesk
1d
BTC 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
MED
Rotate from gold into Bitcoin now
Precious metals are near historic highs, while Bitcoin is showing signs that the bear market is coming to a close. Clients are rotating away from precious metals back into Bitcoin. The relative setup currently favors allocating away from gold into Bitcoin, making it a much more attractive proposition.
BTC LONG
GLD AVOID
MED
14:00
Jul 18
Jul 18
HII
▾
MED
China threat drives sustained HII demand
The growth in China's naval shipbuilding programs means sustained, long-term demand for U.S. Navy ships, and as the builder of 50% of the fleet, HII expects to keep building ships for a long time.
HII LONG
MED
13:38
Jul 18
Jul 18
WTI 1ST
▾
MED
Oil buffers diminished, upside price risk.
The oil market proved resilient to a historically large supply disruption thanks to three buffers: redundant export infrastructure, coordinated strategic reserve releases, and a significant drop in Chinese globally-traded oil demand. However, those buffers have been whittled down since February, leaving the market in a more vulnerable position today. A similarly-sized prolonged disruption now would likely cause a larger price spike, implying upside risk for crude oil.
WTI LONG
MED
13:00
Jul 18
Jul 18
ETH
▾
MED
Ethereum competes with legacy finance, not Solana.
Large financial institutions are highly predictable and consistently prioritize security, uptime predictability, immutable rules, and the deepest liquidity when choosing a new settlement rail. Ethereum leads all blockchains by a mile on liquidity depth and offers the decentralization and trust these institutions demand, making it the natural destination for institutional asset migration. Synchronous composability across L2s and mainnet will further improve the user experience, cementing Ethereum's dominant role.
ETH LONG
MED
13:00
Jul 18
Jul 18
KBE
GLD
NLY
SILVER
CRAK
▾
HIGH
Banks face $4T private credit risk.
U.S. banks have approximately $4 trillion of exposure to non-depository financial institutions, consisting of $1.5 trillion in loans and $3 trillion in undrawn commitments. These loans are often non-recourse and extended to private credit portfolios, creating zombie portfolios where banks are forced to extend and pretend. There are no regulators actively watching these risks under the current administration, and banks will eventually face write-offs and losses. Investors should avoid U.S. banks.
KBE AVOID
Gold dip is a buying opportunity.
Gold has sold off but the decline is a buying opportunity. He is adding to his gold position because Asian investors and central banks view gold as a store of value and a commercial necessity, unlike speculative Western views. Lower prices allow accumulation for the long term.
GLD LONG
Rising rates benefit Annaly's spread.
Annaly (NLY) benefits from rising longer-term interest rates because it can buy higher-yielding securities, widening the spread between its cost of funds and asset yields. The company raises much of its capital in equity markets and uses repurchase agreements to leverage government-insured securities, paying a high dividend yield in the teens. He holds NLY as his biggest position.
NLY LONG
Silver has strong commercial demand.
Silver is being added to particularly because of its commercial demand, which differentiates it from gold. Industrial usage supports silver, and the selloff allows him to increase his position at a lower cost.
SILVER LONG
Diesel shortage will spike prices.
Diesel fuel supplies are tight and prices are up 30% since January, and they will not fall back. Refined product shortages are coming, potentially leading to rationing by the November elections. Diesel is the critical fuel for transportation, agriculture, and the economy, and this will drive double-digit inflation. Being long diesel is a bet on these dynamics.
CRAK LONG
HGNC owns government-insured securities.
He also owns HGNC, a REIT that buys government-insured securities, benefiting from similar spread-based income dynamics. Although no detailed thesis is provided, his ownership implies a positive view.
HGNC LONG
HIGH
12:30
Jul 18
Jul 18
SPCX 1ST
▾
HIGH
SpaceX overvalued, AI story uncertain.
SpaceX's lofty valuation is heavily anchored to an unproven AI story that faces an identity crisis at xAI, rapid pivots, executive exits, and rising competition. The recent Starship launch scrub exposed the inherent volatility of the rocket business and triggered a real-time shareholder selloff, suggesting many investors are not prepared for the long, risky development timeline if the AI narrative fails to materialize.
SPCX AVOID
HIGH
12:28
Jul 18
Jul 18
HYG 1ST
Leveraged Loans
Short-to-Intermediate-Term US Treasuries
TLT
GLD 1ST
▾
MED
Buy high yield and loans for carry
High yield bonds and leveraged loans have significantly outperformed broad bonds since 2021, and investors should allocate to credit for income and yield rather than for tighter spreads or lower rates, as spreads are already tight and rates are expected to stay on hold.
HYG LONG
Leveraged Loans LONG
Favor short-to-intermediate bonds over long bonds
Prefer front and intermediate parts of the yield curve because long-end bonds like 30-year Treasuries are too volatile (whippy), and with the Fed expected to hold rates through 2026, shorter maturities offer attractive carry.
Short-to-Intermediate-Term US Treasuries LONG
TLT AVOID
Gold recommended for inflation protection
Goldman Sachs portfolio strategists recommend gold as part of a diversified portfolio, emphasizing the role of real assets for inflation protection given shifts in the market that make traditional 60/40 less straightforward.
GLD LONG
MED
12:28
Jul 18
Jul 18
BTC FLIP
▾
LOW
Bitcoin likely to rise to 30,000.
When asked if Bitcoin will go from 22,600 to 30,000, Roubini answered 'most likely yes', indicating he expects the price to rise to that level despite viewing crypto as fundamentally a Ponzi scheme.
BTC LONG
LOW
12:27
Jul 18
Jul 18
SPY
▾
HIGH
US stock market is a public utility
58% of Americans own stocks, Trump accounts will bring in even more, making virtually the entire voting public invested in the market. The Fed and government have repeatedly stepped in since 2008 and now, with such broad ownership, the stock market has become like a public utility that can't be allowed to fail.
SPY LONG
HIGH
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